Markets entered the week focused squarely on the Federal Reserve, and the outcome delivered little surprise but meaningful consequences. On Wednesday, the FOMC implemented a widely expected 25bp rate cut, lowering the federal funds target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, formally ending the 4% policy-rate era.
With long-delayed data finally released post-shutdown, investors welcomed signs of easing inflation, core PCE rose just +0.3% in September. Early-December sentiment surveys ticked up, but labor market softness lingered. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bps at the December 9-10 meeting. Optimism remains fragile, but most traders now anticipate a third consecutive cut as the Fed aims to cushion a slowing economy.
Markets ended the final week of November on firmer footing as investors priced in a growing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting. Softer US data following the post-shutdown backlog and easing Treasury yields helped shift sentiment toward a more dovish outlook.
Last week’s backdrop was shaped by the end of the 43-day US government shutdown and cautious tone from central banks. The funding extension cleared a key uncertainty but created a backlog of economic data, with the October CPI report cancelled.
The biggest story this week was the end of the US government shutdown. Congress approved a continuing funding resolution late Wednesday, allowing federal agencies to reopen and workers to be paid back wages.
