The week unfolded against a backdrop of mixed economic signals and cautious policy stances across major central banks. In the US, the temporary government shutdown meant the January Employment Situation report did not arrive as planned, leaving investors without one of the week’s most closely watched data points. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the release would be rescheduled once funding resumed. This created a quieter information environment, with markets leaning more on surveys and company guidance than usual.
Markets spent the week juggling two familiar forces: what central banks are willing to say, and what the data is quietly implying. The key anchor was the Fed’s January decision, where policymakers kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. In its statement, the Fed repeated that growth has been “expanding at a solid pace”, noted that job gains have “remained low” with the unemployment rate showing “some signs of stabilisation”, and said inflation remains “somewhat elevated”.
Investor sentiment was shaped by steady (not accelerating) macro signals and a market that is increasingly priced for policy inertia. In the US, inflation remained contained (Dec CPI ~+2.7% YoY; core ~+2.6% YoY), reinforcing expectations that the Fed is unlikely to change rates at its January meeting. With growth data only producing modest surprises (rather than persistent upside/downside momentum), markets continued to treat the near‑term outlook as “stable but not strong,” which kept risk appetite contained and encouraged selective positioning rather than broad risk‑on exposure.
Major central banks mostly held a steady course amid broadly easing inflation. US price data remained benign – headline CPI was about 2.7% year-on-year in December, about the same as November – supporting expectations that the Fed may only cut rates later in 2026 rather than move quickly.
The first full trading week of 2026 unfolded with a steady macro backdrop and limited change in central bank expectations. Policy signals across major economies remained broadly consistent with late-December messaging, reinforcing a sense of continuity rather than transition. Inflation trends continue to ease gradually, while growth indicators point to moderation rather than deterioration, keeping investors positioned cautiously but constructively.
