September’s second week was all about balancing softer data with central bank caution and a few geopolitical flare-ups. In the US, the August CPI print came in at +0.4% MoM, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%, its highest level since January. Core CPI held steady at 3.1%, which was enough to reassure investors that underlying pressures aren’t spiralling.
The Japanese yen is at a crossroads. After years of playing dual roles – safe-haven asset and funding currency for carry trades – it faces a turning point. BoJ is hinting at ending its era of ultra-low rates, so will the yen regain its safe-haven shine or remain the world’s favourite funding currency?
September began with investors weighing softer data, cautious central banks, and persistent geopolitical risks.
In the US, the August jobs report set the tone. Payrolls rose by 165,000, below expectations, while unemployment edged up to 4.3%, the highest since 2023.
Here’s a curious thing about the US dollar: it tends to rise when the world is falling apart… but also when the US economy is roaring. Odd combination, right? If things are bad, you’d expect the dollar to drop. And if everything’s great, maybe people would diversify into other currencies. Yet history keeps showing the opposite. Economists call this the Dollar Smile Theory. And once you walk through the idea, it actually feels pretty intuitive.
For decades, Japan has been the land of cheap money. Interest rates sat near zero, sometimes even below, while other countries offered much higher returns. That gap created what traders call the “carry trade.” The logic is simple: borrow yen at almost no cost, swap it into dollars, and invest in US bonds paying 4-5%. The difference becomes your profit.
Global markets rode a volatile week shaped by shifting monetary policy expectations and geopolitical surprises. In the US, Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks landed on the dovish side, signalling risks have tilted toward labour softness and nudging the door open for a September rate cut. At the same time, the Commerce Department revised Q2 GDP up to 3.3% annualised, a firmer base than first thought. Core PCE eased to 2.9% YoY, keeping the disinflation trend intact even as consumer confidence slipped and hiring cooled. Put together, traders leaned into nearly 90% odds of a cut next month.
Markets spent the week waiting for Jackson Hole, and Powell didn’t disappoint. His message was softer than many feared: the Fed now sees the balance of risks shifting, and he even opened the door to a September cut. That was enough to steady nerves after five straight down sessions for Wall Street. By Friday, the Dow was at record highs, the S&P 500 rose, and only the Nasdaq lagged as tech finally cooled.
If you’ve ever booked a holiday months ahead just to lock in a flight price, you already understand the idea of derivatives. In markets, they work the same way.
Every trading community, from the smallest retail account to the largest institutional desk, confronts a universal scarcity: finite capital set against infinite market uncertainty.
Picture this. It’s early morning, coffee in hand, and traders everywhere are hovering over their screens. One number is about to drop. It might be the latest inflation figure. It might be the monthly jobs report. Either way, within seconds it’s across news tickers. And, just like that, markets could jump, stumble, or go haywire.
No surprise moves, but no green light for rate cuts yet either
At its July 2930 meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. That’s the same level it’s held since earlier this year, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear they’re not rushing into any rate cuts just yet.
Japan, deflation, and low-rate environments explained.
You’ve probably heard someone throw around the term “liquidity trap” and just moved on. Fair enough, it does sound like one of those textbook ideas economists obsess over. But here’s the thing. It actually matters, and more than you might think.
The financial landscape in Thailand is growing rapidly, with a number of young and experienced traders looking beyond their local options to access gold trading and forex trading markets.
India is home to a growing population of retail traders, from professionals in finance to everyday investors, with more and more people exploring the potential of forex trading and gold trading.
EUR/USD is trading near its highest level of 2025, and on the surface, the trend looks strong. But traders aren’t just watching the price – they’re asking a deeper question: Is this move backed by real demand, or could it be a short-lived spike?
