After two years of rapid rate hikes, central banks are finally shifting gears. The ECB has already cut its benchmark rate back down to around 2% after peaking near 4%, while the US Fed is only just starting to trim from its much higher peak. That divergence leaves investors asking an awkward question: if rates keep sliding, which side of the Atlantic has the stronger banks?
September’s second week was all about balancing softer data with central bank caution and a few geopolitical flare-ups. In the US, the August CPI print came in at +0.4% MoM, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%, its highest level since January. Core CPI held steady at 3.1%, which was enough to reassure investors that underlying pressures aren’t spiralling.
Big global banks like JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and HSBC aren’t just cornerstones of the financial system – they’re also playgrounds for technical traders.
The Japanese yen is at a crossroads. After years of playing dual roles – safe-haven asset and funding currency for carry trades – it faces a turning point. BoJ is hinting at ending its era of ultra-low rates, so will the yen regain its safe-haven shine or remain the world’s favourite funding currency?
September began with investors weighing softer data, cautious central banks, and persistent geopolitical risks.
In the US, the August jobs report set the tone. Payrolls rose by 165,000, below expectations, while unemployment edged up to 4.3%, the highest since 2023.
